Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Guestimates Part - 2

Q1. Estimate the number of cars in delhi ?

Ans. Cars can be bought by individuals, taxi owners, institutions

Individuals:  Total population of Delhi is 15 million. Average family size is 5. So about 3 million families.
                   Car purchasing power ( 40% of families). That comes out to be 12 lakh families
                    Let's take average 2 cars per family in delhi, than we have 24 lakh cars individually owned cars.

Taxi owners : Taxi can be of two types : Commuting in delhi  and those used for outstation
                      We assume taxi should be equal to 2% of the population. Number of taxis can be 3 lakh

Institutions:   Institutions can be Govt, Private Institutions, Private businesses
                    Lets assume 1 business entity for 100 citizens. We have 1.5Lakh such entities.
                    Lets assume 2 cars per such entity, we get 3 lakh cars

Total cars : 24lakh + 3lakh + 3 lakh = 30 lakh cars in delhi


Q. Number of Red ties in delhi

Ans. Red ties can be used by students, professional, or they can be as inventory with shopkeepers
Estimate the number of school students (age group 5-15 in 15 million). How many of them may need to wear red ties.
Estimate the number of professions (working in organized sector. 5% of total 25-60 years in 15 million poulation).  Lets say 15 % of them have red ties (Blue, black are much common)
Estimate on the basis of customers, how many get sold every year (lets say 20% of them are bought every year). Lets say shopkeeper keeps 2 month of inventory. So divide the number of base number by 6 to get number of ties in stock.
Ans can be the sum of the 3 categories found above.

Q. Estimate the number of electricity bulbs in London?

Ans. Electricity bulbs can be used at homes, offices and street lights.
Homes -> Population of London -> Number of houses + hostels ->Number of rooms per facility -> number of bulbs in a room
Offices -> Population -> Offices going population -> Number of offices (dividing the working population by avg number of employees per organization) -> Size of a office -> Divide the average volume of an office
luminosity of a bulb
Street lighting -> Ask for the size of Delhi -> Find of a size of road required to traverse from north to south or west to east (Lets say for delhi 20 km north to south and 20 km west to east) -> assume 15 roads running parallet north to south and 15 roads running west to east -> Total 1200 km roads in delhi. -> Lets assume on street lamp every 20 metres -> One can get the number of street lamps by (1200km / .020)
 Ans can be the sum of the 3 categories found above.

Q. Potential of AC market  in India

Ans. ACs can be used in homes, offices, cars
ACs will be used in warm geographies in India. Estimate the total number of Indian population in tropical belt.
ACs in home -> Number of homes in tropical belt -> A fraction of them (5%) can afford an airconditioner -> Multiply the number by the average number ACs per home
ACs in office -> Number of offices, hotels, lodging, hospitals -> Indivisual ACs (1 for each room) and at some places Central cooling (one for entire building, only one per building is required)
Number of cars -> Estimate number of cars in AC -> Majority of cars will have a AC builtin
Total market for ACs is sum of ACs in home, office and vehicles.

Ans can be the sum of the 3 categories found above.




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