Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Guestimates Part - 1

Q1) Number of Hajmola eaten per day ?

Ans) India's population is 120 Crores
        People below poverty line can be safely discarded (30%)
        Remaining = 120 * (1 - 0.30) = 84 Crores  (Approximated to 80 Crores)
        We assume Hajmola is eaten in age groups (5-15) and (15 - 25) and other form an immaterial part of the customer segment

Fact: approx 2.5 Cr Hajmola tablets are eaten per day


Q2) Number of cosco balls in a plane

Ans) Assuming a empty plane (no passengers) but intact with seats and machinery.
ques - Number of rows - 40
ques - which plane make - Boing 747    (6 seats in a row)
Assumption - Seat length - 0.5 mt   Distance between seats - 0.5mt
Length of plane = [3mt cabin + (0.5+0.5 mt) * 40 + 2mt (tail space) ] = 45 mt
Width of plane = [6 seats of 0.5 mt + 0.5 mt aisle] = 3.5 mt (diameter)
radius = (3.5)/2mt
cylindrical shape volume = pi r*r*h = pi * (3.5/2) (3.5/2) 45mt
adjustment = volume of 4 washrooms + volume of luggage space - volume occupied in seats

radius of cosco ball = 3 cm
Volume of cosco ball = 4/3 pi r*r*r = 4/3 pi (3/100) (3/100) (3/100)
Gaps are left between balls. So we assume total volume taken is 10 % higher than cosco balls actual volume

Number of cosco balls =  [pi * (3.5/2) (3.5/2) 45mt + adjustment] / [4/3 pi (3/100) (3/100) (3/100) (1.10)]


Q) Helmets sold every year in India

Ans) Step 1 - How many bikes are there in India
       Helmets are required for people travelling on bikes. We can remove the population in bottom of pyramid
       Lets say 60% of people are above poverty line and can afford a bike. 120Cr * 0.6 = 72 ~ 70 Cr people
       We can remove below 18 years (30%) and above 60year (10%) from the consideration set
       Left consideration set = 70Cr * 60% = 42 Crore (Surds dont need to wear helmet) ~ 40 Cr
                                                                                          = 3.7 Cr

For every bike lets say there are some pillion riders as well. Avg helmets per bike = 1.2
Total helmets - 3.7 Cr * 1.2 = 4.5Cr in India
Lets say people buy a new helmet every 3 years. We have 1.5Cr helmets getting sold every year.

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